Carbon neutrality, which scenarios for France in 2050?

Par Emile Poncelet, Esteban Leleu, Victor Rosenbaum, Julien Messner, Louis Noyer, Lyes Selmouni, Lucas Maitrugue, étudiants ESTA Belfort, 05/2022

Mots clés : #Carbonneutrality #Climate #EcologicalTransition #Energy #Greenhousegaseffects

What’s carbon neutrality and how to reach it?

Carbon neutrality refers to a balance between carbon emissions and carbon absorption from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Carbon sequestration is the process of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it. All global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be offset by carbon sequestration in order to attain net zero emissions.

Forest fires, changes in land use, and logging all release carbon from natural sinks like forests into the atmosphere. To achieve climate neutrality, it is therefore critical to minimize carbon emissions.

Another strategy to cut emissions and achieve carbon neutrality is to reduce emissions in one sector by lowering emissions in another. This may be accomplished by putting money into renewable energy, energy efficiency, and other low-carbon technology. An example of a carbon offsetting mechanism is the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS). The carbon border adjustment system, which would impose carbon pricing on imported goods from nations with lower climate ambitions, is one example of an approach to cut emissions. This should deter corporations from shifting manufacturing out of the EU to a country with less rigorous greenhouse gas emission regulations. In 2021, the Commission should propose this carbon tax.

What are the goals?

The European Union is working on an ambitious climate policy. As part of the Green Deal, we want to be the first continent to reduce CO2 emissions generated by 2050.

In April 2021, the MEP agreed with the Council on the EU’s commitment to be carbon-neutral by 2050.

Currently, five EU countries have set climate-neutral goals by law. As Sweden wants to achieve net zero emissions by 2045, France wants to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

ADEME’s carbon neutrality scenarios for 2050

ADEME (Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie) is a French public establishment of an industrial and commercial nature, founded in 1991 and placed under the supervision of the Ministries of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy and of Higher Education and Research. Its mission is to help implement public environmental and energy policies.

ADEME wished to submit to the debate four coherent « typical » paths that present, in a deliberately contrasting manner, economic, technical, and social options for achieving carbon neutrality in 2050. They are based on the same macroeconomic, demographic and climate change data (+2.1°C in 2100). However, they take different paths and correspond to different societal choices. In this article, we are mainly focusing on two of the four scenarios.

First scenario “Frugal Generation”

This first scenario consists of doing several changes in our way of living, especially travelling, heating up our homes, eat, buying and using equipment. Those changes will allow us to reach carbon neutrality without the implication of capture and/or storage of carbon technologies which are mostly unproven and uncertain on a large scale.

The scenario is the following:

New consumers’ expectations as well as new practices will appear in our ways of consuming. The growth of energy demand which takes all the resources and deteriorates the environment will stop thanks to evolution in our behaviour, organisation, and technology. The transition will mainly be powered by frugality thanks to sobriety and strain.

Respect of nature and adaptation to climate change

The whole idea revolves around the fact that nature is an entity considered as a sanctuary and that we as humans belong this sanctuary.

As an efficient way to adapt ourselves, part of the production system is based on low-tech (as opposed to high-tech) and small and medium-sized enterprises: technical systems and technologies, simplified and made more robust, are more controllable and repairable by citizens: thus, the sobriety of products and services makes it possible to better absorb direct climatic hazards or their socio-economic impacts. In other words, this is the end of planned obsolescence and overconsumption.

Bioeconomy, food, agriculture, forest and soils

There’s an in-depth transformation of our eating habits as well as reasonable management of the forest resources.

The evolution of farming systems (70% of production at very low input levels) follows that of diets, i.e., a threefold reduction in the quantity of meat with more extensive but fewer livestock. The consumption of exotic products is reduced.

The surface occupied by non-productive natural areas is thus significantly increased. The impact on ecosystems is reduced. Apart from food, methane and combustion are two important ways of using biomass, which is mainly agricultural. Sobriety in the use of wood materials (sawing, panels and buildings) makes it possible to satisfy needs with a collection of wood in the forest that has remained constant.

Development of land-buildings-mobility

On this point, the main objective is to massively reduce the number of new constructions and to favour the renovation of buildings.

In order to reduce the number of new buildings, the number of people per dwelling should be increased to 2.1, compared to 2 at present, and the number of second homes should be divided by 3. The main consequence of this is the reduction of building materials and the reduction of GHG emissions. Rural areas and medium-sized towns are favoured over large cities and metropolitan area.

Natural resources are now preferred; wood heating is developing, and the use of gas is decreasing.

Finally, we note that daily life in housing is evolving at a high speed. A decrease in the rate of equipment is to be expected as well as a mutualisation of the various household appliances.

This will result in electricity consumption for certain uses (household appliances, electronics, lighting) being divided by three by 2050.

Industry, materials and circular economy

A restrained industrial production with a significant focus on the “Made in France”. Material demand is decreasing significantly, in line with major changes in lifestyles: a 30% reduction in the surface area of new single-family homes compared to nowadays, a halving of the number of cars produced, a 70% reduction in the consumption of synthetic fertilisers per inhabitant, etc.

As a result, industrial production is declining in physical volume and activity is being transferred to other sectors. The production of certain sectors is relocated. The production system decarbonises mainly via biomass, to reach -53% of energy consumption and -79% of GHG emissions in 2050.

Decarbonised energy systems

Concerning the decarbonization of our energy systems,

Limit construction, implementing rapid and energetic renovations, pooling equipment at the scale of the living areas. These measures allow to divide by 3 the consumption of electricity

for specific uses (household appliances, electronics, lighting, etc.). If possible, the mitigation of a decrease in demand of mobility, increased proximity, increased carpooling as well as modernization of hitchhiking in rural areas, promote walking, cycling and public transport.

45% decrease in national freight traffic.

Moreover, as said before, promote the made in France, consuming locally and relocating our production sites would be essential and not negligible points to decarbonize our systems.

GHG and carbon sinks

Wood harvests are stable and only biological sinks (soil, forest, biomass) are mobilised. These are much more developed than they are today (80 MtCO²eq per year in the forest alone, 116 MtCO²eq in total, compared to 44 MtCO²eq of total natural net sink today), with modified agricultural practices and a significant growth of the forest maintained in extensive management.

The philosophy of this scenario is based on the sanctity of organisms and the reduction of consumption, which can be done without a technology sink, or even with a positive hedge in case of a negative impact on climate change. The net emissions balance is -42MtCO₂eq.

Second scenario “Regional Cooperation”

Within the context of shared governance and regional cooperation, society is altered. Non-governmental organizations, government institutions, the corporate sector, and civil society work together to keep the social fabric intact. To achieve this carbon neutrality, we will have to count on a sustainable path used by our society, mixing sobriety efficiency.

Adaptation to climate change

The climate change adaptation strategy is based on balanced governance at the national and regional levels: the national level coordinates and pools needs for investment in climate change adaptation from regional population centre and plans strategic resource stocks, whereas the regional or even sub-regional level continuously monitors natural resource pressure to adjust public and industry sector policies.

Ecological engineering approaches are being developed: ecosystem services are being incorporated into all infrastructure building and maintenance programs, and cities are becoming more ecologically oriented. Citizens are constructing ecological corridors by greening public and private locations. They are planning to adapt to climatic shocks as a group.

Bioeconomy-food-agriculture, forest-soils

The climate change adaptation strategy is based on balanced governance at the national and regional levels: the national level coordinates and pools needs for investment in climate change adaptation from regional population centers and plans strategic resource stocks, whereas the regional or even sub-regional level continuously monitors natural resource pressure to adjust public and industry sector policies.

Ecological engineering approaches are being developed: ecosystem services are being incorporated into all infrastructure building and maintenance programs, and cities are becoming more ecologically oriented. Citizens are constructing ecological corridors by greening public and private locations. They are planning to adapt to climatic shocks as a group.

Development of land-buildings-mobility

The climate change adaptation strategy is based on balanced governance at the national and regional levels: the national level coordinates and pools needs for investment in climate change adaptation from regional population centers and plans strategic resource stocks, whereas the regional or even sub-regional level continuously monitors natural resource pressure to adjust public and industry sector policies.

Ecological engineering approaches are being developed: ecosystem services are being incorporated into all infrastructure building and maintenance programs, and cities are becoming more ecologically oriented. Citizens are constructing ecological corridors by greening public and private locations. They are planning to adapt to climatic shocks as a group.

With the emergence of daily trains, freight cycles, folding bikes, velomobiles, mini-cars, carpooling, and huge electrification, demand for transportation is transitioning to a more local approach, supported by substantial targeted investments. As a result, automobile externalities are reduced (environmental impacts, congestion, sedentary lifestyles, etc.). Due to a fall in quantities and distances traversed, freight traffic is down 35% in ton-miles, with the proportion of rail and waterways more than tripling. Filling and efficiency optimization also decreases energy usage, which is becoming more diverse and adaptable to local resources. As a result, direct GHG emissions from the mobility sector have decreased by 95%.

Industry-materials-circular economy

A low-carbon industrial policy that promotes higher energy and material efficiency, regional specialization, and a circular economy is supported and funded by public planning. Recycling is well-developed, yet the overall amount of waste to be recycled has decreased as a result of the circular economy’s success. The need for recovered raw materials and energy, on the other hand, finds a happy medium, resulting in a high recovery rate (95%) and the virtual absence of landfills. In addition, in specific areas where manufacturing is decarbonised, a massive re-industrialisation effort (enhancing trade balances in terms of physical quantities) is underway. Nonetheless, owing to changes in demand, physical volume production in most areas decreases. In 2050, industry achieves a 47% decrease in energy usage and an 84% reduction in GHG emissions.

Decarbonised energy systems

This goal may be achieved using 3 mains energies. First, we would have to maintain our electricity at least as it is nowadays, in term of production per capita. Then, the hydrogen industry will have to evolve at until we could use it for some direct and indirect uses in society. Finally, our common gas consummation degreases as our demands of decarbonate gases increase.

GHG and carbon sinks

Carbon storage in soils due to favourable agricultural practices. Moderate levels of wood harvesting in forests, allowing the maintenance of a significant carbon sink in forestsCO2 capture and storage is deployed on a few processes with incompressible emissions (cement plants).

Conclusion

Those scenarios as different as they are each have their lot of limitations including some in commons such as the lack of benchmarks for various sectors that are not as mainstreams nowadays. Also, some scenarios have more scientific evidence backing up but as they juxtaposed it may seem that they are as likely to doable. Another point that wasn’t considered in the ADEME analysis is biodiversity as it’s not included in the report.

To conclude, the transition to carbon neutrality is far from easy but mandatory. As we saw there are several scenarios possible to reach this milestone, each of them has a different approach on the subject but in the end the objective is the same, preserve the environment and make life easier and durable. If you want to know more about the other scenarios, we suggest visiting « the other ADEME group’s article” (link in the sources).

Références

Ademe website. (2022). https://www.ademe.fr/ https://transitions2050.ademe.fr/en

What is carbon neutrality and how can it be achieved by 2050? | News | European Parliament. (2021, 24 Juin). European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20190926STO62270/what-is-carbon-neutrality-and-how-can-it-be-achieved-by-2050

Ademe. (2015). Transition 2050 decide now act4 climate, https://librairie.ademe.fr/cadic/6739/transitions-2050-synthesis.pdf?modal=false